tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4024 Southwest SRQ 11:31 BNA 12:39 6% 2% 1.0% no record
WN 4025 Southwest SRQ 20:31 BNA 21:38 13% 4% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 26m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 6h 20m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295 5h 46m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 25m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 7h 02m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 51m Newark EWR 10:44 → BNA 12:01UA 2776 7h 01m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 16:55 → BNA 17:27AA 519 5h 22m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612 57m Newark EWR 16:05 → BNA 17:46UA 2454 6h 31m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON