Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4770 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4770 SRQ 06:28 → BWI 08:59 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4027 SRQ 18:46 → BWI 21:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4770 Southwest	SRQ 06:28	BWI 08:59	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3167 Southwest	SRQ 12:31	BWI 15:14	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 4027 Southwest	SRQ 18:46	BWI 21:32	16%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON