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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 12:09, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → SRQ 12:09 DCA 14:52 22% 7% 1.4% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 43m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13AA 3043 4h 52m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Miami MIA 09:58 → DCA 12:43AA 1612 6h 21m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 7h 36m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832 6h 58m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727 5h 25m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452 3h 54m Charlotte CLT 19:01 → DCA 20:35AA 527 7h 30m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON