Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 17:16, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4072 Envoy	SRQ 17:16	DFW 19:03	23%	7%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	6h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	6h 47m	99%	84%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747	7h 55m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	5h 44m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	7h 15m	99%	80%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Miami	MIA 09:42 → DFW 11:54AA 893	6h 32m	95%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 17:04 → DFW 18:53AA 3209	6h 48m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON