Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1343 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1343 United Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	EWR 08:53	4%	3%	1.6%	94%
UA 2612 United Flight history →	SRQ 12:15	EWR 15:08	23%	12%	1.4%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	99%	85%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697	6h 20m	98%	81%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	59m Miami	MIA 08:23 → EWR 11:34AA 1801	5h 12m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883	6h 11m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	6h 05m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 53m	99%	65%
American Details →	SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 16:29 → EWR 18:28AA 1330	5h 23m	95%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON