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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 6h 00m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223 5h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:07DL 2327 7h 46m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 00m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 38m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:20 → CLT 09:19AA 2264 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:42 → IAH 14:20AA 398 8h 00m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 54m Miami MIA 08:18 → IAH 10:13AA 1347 4h 51m 85% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON