Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 14:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2412 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 14:30	LGA 17:30	25%	13%	2.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 41m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 38m	99%	82%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 35m Miami	MIA 08:59 → LGA 12:13AA 605	5h 51m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	6h 03m	97%	75%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:47 → LGA 13:46AA 2268	7h 25m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	5h 49m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 37m	99%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 17:38 → LGA 19:41AA 1060	6h 36m	99%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON