tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4872 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4872 Southwest SRQ 07:21 MCO 08:18 3% 1% 0.9% no record
WN 1376 Southwest SRQ 18:21 MCO 19:18 20% 8% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 56m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576 6h 13m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 58m Miami MIA 09:22 → MCO 10:38AA 2587 4h 16m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150 5h 39m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 58m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 08m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 54m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 5h 29m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON