Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4031 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4031 Southwest	SRQ 06:11	MDW 08:14	5%	1%	1.9%	no record
WN 2484 Southwest	SRQ 17:11	MDW 19:16	28%	10%	2.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 14m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON