Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 06:22, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SRQ 06:22	MIA 07:24	8%	2%	1.3%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 58m	99%	84%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 50m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 15m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 54m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	5h 33m	97%	69%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	2h 38m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 38m	97%	68%
American Details →	SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → MIA 19:00AA 3011	5h 55m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON