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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:42DL 8885 7h 42m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:32DL 1174 6h 08m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 18:25 → PHL 20:34DL 2065 7h 13m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:20 → CLT 09:19AA 2264 1h 41m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 5h 23m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 7h 11m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Miami MIA 08:42 → PHL 11:41AA 551 5h 19m 90% 77%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → PHL 20:15AA 423 7h 10m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON