Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4033 at 13:56, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4033 Southwest	SRQ 13:56	STL 15:31	13%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 13m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 05m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 03m	99%	83%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096	7h 43m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:07DL 3115	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	4h 41m	92%	77%
American Details →	SRQ 13:05 → CLT 15:07AA 1452	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 17:02 → STL 18:04AA 2686	5h 59m	97%	74%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	51m Newark	EWR 09:44 → STL 11:20UA 2311	6h 20m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON