Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1524 STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 239 STL 16:21 → ATL 19:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1524 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:00	ATL 08:38	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1536 Delta Flight history →	STL 07:08	ATL 09:45	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	STL 09:24	ATL 12:02	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 4034 Southwest	STL 10:21	ATL 13:13	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:51	ATL 13:25	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:22	ATL 16:07	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	STL 16:55	ATL 19:46	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:58	ATL 21:44	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 239 Southwest	STL 16:21	ATL 19:14	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON