tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4458 Southwest STL 08:36 AUS 10:47 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3173 Southwest STL 12:51 AUS 15:03 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 6h 29m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 46m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 21m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 26m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 3h 42m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 6h 57m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:37 → AUS 09:49AA 794 4h 17m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 6h 28m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON