Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 884 at 16:31, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 884 Southwest	STL 16:31	CHS 19:37	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	5h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	5h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:26DL 2463	6h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	6h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 25m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 15:49 → CHS 17:56DL 3016	6h 37m	99%	84%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:02 → CHS 13:38AA 2154	7h 42m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:07UA 4310 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 12m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON