Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4049 at 10:21, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4049 Southwest	STL 10:21	CLE 13:07	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	4h 32m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775	5h 24m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	4h 56m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350	6h 51m	99%	81%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 12:55 → CLE 15:25UA 1878	7h 05m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:45DL 2150	6h 23m	99%	80%
American Details →	STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 14:08 → CLE 15:49AA 1244	7h 17m	98%	79%
United Details →	STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502	5h 34m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet	54m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389	3h 58m	66%	56%
Delta Details →	STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m New York	LGA 17:14 → CLE 19:19DL 5194 · flown by Endeavor	5h 44m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON