Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1515 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1515 STL 06:47 → CLT 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3690 STL 17:36 → CLT 20:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1515 American Flight history →	STL 06:47	CLT 09:45	8%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	8%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	STL 10:22	CLT 13:19	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	STL 14:01	CLT 16:59	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
WN 3690 Southwest	STL 17:36	CLT 20:27	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON