Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4590 at 10:26, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4590 Southwest	STL 10:26	CMH 13:01	5%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	4h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:14 → CMH 13:05DL 2550	5h 44m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	5h 30m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892	5h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	6h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	7h 12m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545	7h 11m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	59m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → CMH 20:26UA 1278	4h 04m	61%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON