Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4634 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4634 STL 05:57 → DCA 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3619 STL 15:56 → DCA 19:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4634 Republic	STL 05:57	DCA 09:21	5%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 4963 Southwest	STL 08:11	DCA 11:25	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	STL 10:52	DCA 14:19	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3522 Southwest	STL 13:16	DCA 16:31	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2286 American Flight history →	STL 17:09	DCA 20:31	18%	9%	0.8%	58%
WN 3619 Southwest	STL 15:56	DCA 19:11	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON