Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3356 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3356 STL 06:06 → DEN 07:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 STL 16:39 → DEN 18:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3356 Southwest	STL 06:06	DEN 07:32	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4062 Southwest	STL 08:36	DEN 10:01	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5548 SkyWest	STL 05:14	DEN 06:46	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2459 United Flight history →	STL 09:06	DEN 10:30	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 4063 Southwest	STL 12:16	DEN 13:39	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1380 United Flight history →	STL 13:38	DEN 15:00	13%	5%	0.5%	86%
WN 4064 Southwest	STL 14:26	DEN 15:49	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2814 Southwest	STL 18:41	DEN 20:03	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1374 Southwest	STL 16:51	DEN 18:13	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2323 United	STL 16:39	DEN 18:06	22%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON