Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2261 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1363 STL 15:41 → DFW 17:42 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:32	DFW 07:30	5%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:07	DFW 09:06	9%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1959 American Flight history →	STL 08:37	DFW 10:45	10%	5%	0.8%	70%
AA 3333 American	STL 10:21	DFW 12:20	10%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 1523 Frontier Flight history →	STL 10:17	DFW 12:20	11%	6%	0.8%	69%
MQ 4074 Envoy	STL 12:56	DFW 14:52	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3739 Envoy	STL 17:14	DFW 19:07	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2761 American	STL 18:50	DFW 20:59	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1363 American Flight history →	STL 15:41	DFW 17:42	21%	8%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON