Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1626 STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2822 STL 18:09 → DTW 20:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1626 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:30	DTW 09:04	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 645 Southwest	STL 10:21	DTW 13:00	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:19	DTW 12:53	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:54	DTW 16:30	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:09	DTW 20:44	11%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON