Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4070 at 15:41, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4070 Southwest	STL 15:41	ECP 17:44	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 48m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	4h 33m	99%	88%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	98%	84%
American Details →	STL 06:47 → CLT 09:45AA 1515	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → ECP 11:30AA 5262 · flown by PSA	4h 43m	92%	81%
American Details →	STL 10:22 → CLT 13:19AA 2497	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 16:49 → ECP 17:27AA 5297 · flown by PSA	7h 05m	98%	78%
American Details →	STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:17 → ECP 14:25AA 2052	7h 18m	99%	74%
American Details →	STL 15:41 → DFW 17:42AA 1363	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	5h 30m	87%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON