Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1479 at 06:01, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1479 Southwest	STL 06:01	FLL 09:48	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 23m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	54m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	6h 04m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	5h 12m	97%	83%
United Details →	STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371	3h 48m Houston	IAH 12:11 → FLL 16:01UA 1982	8h 46m	100%	83%
United Details →	STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa	1h 55m Houston	IAH 10:26 → FLL 14:20UA 2670	7h 06m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294	8h 04m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413	5h 17m	98%	79%
United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	2h 55m Houston	IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277	7h 57m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON