tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4506 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 08:43 IAD 11:55 18% 8% 0.3% 82%
UA 4454 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 12:55 IAD 16:07 28% 16% 1.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 6h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 1h 56m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 7h 52m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 8h 08m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 22m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 6h 39m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 55m Chicago ORD 12:55 → IAD 15:53UA 1128 7h 33m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 00m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON