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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:49, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 05m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 6h 45m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 09m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 6h 08m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990 4h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → JAX 16:27DL 2720 4h 36m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265 6h 51m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 12:41 → JAX 14:09AA 1466 5h 37m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON