Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4078 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4078 STL 05:32 → LAS 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2523 STL 18:21 → LAS 19:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4078 Southwest	STL 05:32	LAS 07:15	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4124 Southwest	STL 07:52	LAS 09:31	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4079 Southwest	STL 12:56	LAS 14:32	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 3107 Frontier Flight history →	STL 12:09	LAS 13:51	15%	7%	1.4%	79%
WN 4467 Southwest	STL 14:31	LAS 16:05	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2523 Southwest	STL 18:21	LAS 19:54	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	52m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	5h 18m	85%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON