tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2493 Southwest STL 06:01 LAX 08:00 6% 1% 0.5% no record
AA 6480 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → STL 06:12 LAX 08:17 14% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 02m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974 8h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 04m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 53m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 3h 59m Houston IAH 14:49 → LAX 16:29UA 1945 9h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 7h 55m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 1h 30m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 7h 15m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 46m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 10h 05m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 10:32 → LAX 12:44UA 2170 6h 44m 70% 57%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Chicago ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967 7h 18m 69% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON