Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 882 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 882 STL 05:41 → LGA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4085 STL 15:36 → LGA 19:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 882 Southwest	STL 05:41	LGA 09:15	6%	1%	1.4%	no record
YX 4450 Republic	STL 05:59	LGA 09:43	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
YX 4443 Republic	STL 09:51	LGA 13:35	15%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 479 Southwest	STL 11:06	LGA 14:40	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:31	LGA 20:14	29%	14%	1.3%	no record
WN 4085 Southwest	STL 15:36	LGA 19:10	34%	12%	1.1%	no record
DL 4981 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 06:05	LGA 09:38	10%	6%	2.1%	90%
DL 4935 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 17:22	LGA 21:00	21%	13%	18.8%	79%
DL 4839 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 09:22	LGA 12:56	23%	5%	10.4%	77%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 12:35	LGA 16:09	26%	14%	5.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON