tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2667 Southwest STL 08:31 MCI 09:48 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 487 Southwest STL 15:06 MCI 16:24 11% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349 5h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 21m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 6h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 3h 42m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 8h 00m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 06m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON