Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4622 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4622 STL 05:04 → MCO 08:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2636 STL 18:32 → MCO 22:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest	STL 05:04	MCO 08:26	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4091 Southwest	STL 07:54	MCO 11:16	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4092 Southwest	STL 10:26	MCO 13:49	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest	STL 18:11	MCO 21:34	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4462 Southwest	STL 16:06	MCO 19:29	15%	6%	1.7%	no record
F9 2636 Frontier Flight history →	STL 18:32	MCO 22:06	17%	9%	1.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON