Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 270 at 08:31, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 270 Southwest	STL 08:31	MKE 09:56	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	5h 53m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561	4h 56m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	6h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	6h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → MKE 15:04DL 2152	5h 40m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	6h 49m	99%	85%
American Details →	STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308	2h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 11:34 → MKE 13:01AA 5474 · flown by PSA	6h 47m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343	5h 43m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet	56m Chicago	ORD 10:31 → MKE 11:21UA 5234 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m	69%	53%
United Details →	STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 14:04 → MKE 14:54UA 5668 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON