Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1597 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1597 STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 3811 STL 15:50 → MSP 17:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1597 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:21	MSP 07:56	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 286 Southwest	STL 08:31	MSP 10:13	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1289 Delta	STL 11:24	MSP 13:05	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1224 Delta	STL 17:44	MSP 19:25	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 3811 SkyWest	STL 15:50	MSP 17:36	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 5325 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:49	MSP 10:30	23%	9%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON