tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4105 Southwest STL 08:31 MSY 10:27 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3470 Southwest STL 14:06 MSY 15:59 12% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 33m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 36m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 3h 32m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 59m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 3h 58m Houston IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738 7h 38m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 5h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:25 → MSY 17:23UA 250 8h 17m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON