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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 00m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 4h 45m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 1h 19m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 48m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → STL 14:01 → CLT 16:59AA 3096 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085 6h 12m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:22 → CLT 13:19AA 2497 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 15:51 → MYR 17:01AA 2943 5h 39m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 11:03 → PHL 14:37AA 1739 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 6h 24m 91% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON