Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 380 at 08:36, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 380 Southwest	STL 08:36	OMA 10:04	3%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	5h 36m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	6h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371	3h 15m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	98%	86%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 05m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa	5h 36m	97%	86%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 20m Denver	DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327	7h 18m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 57m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:22DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON