Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1926 at 04:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1926 STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest OO 5332 STL 15:15 → ORD 16:41 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1926 American Flight history →	STL 04:56	ORD 06:26	7%	5%	1.8%	74%
AA 1997 American Flight history →	STL 07:27	ORD 08:57	11%	6%	1.3%	88%
UA 2792 United	STL 08:00	ORD 09:29	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2818 American	STL 11:08	ORD 12:34	17%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 1920 United	STL 13:29	ORD 14:58	23%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 13:47	ORD 15:14	25%	14%	2.5%	59%
YX 4645 Republic	STL 17:17	ORD 18:51	26%	9%	2.5%	no record
UA 541 United	STL 17:33	ORD 19:00	28%	11%	0.9%	no record
OO 5332 SkyWest	STL 15:15	ORD 16:41	29%	13%	1.9%	no record
UA 4517 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 10:20	ORD 11:52	10%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 4423 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 07:20	ORD 09:00	14%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 4183 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:00	ORD 09:35	28%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 4395 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:25	ORD 13:03	29%	12%	2.8%	71%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%
UA 4452 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 15:22	ORD 17:00	37%	17%	5.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON