Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1318 Alaska	STL 18:07	PDX 20:18	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	8h 20m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 58m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	95%	88%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	2h 57m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51DL 691	10h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371	3h 34m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	9h 54m	98%	82%
United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	3h 22m Houston	IAH 16:47 → PDX 19:18UA 1964	10h 08m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON