Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1315 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1315 STL 05:06 → PHX 06:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4113 STL 17:51 → PHX 19:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1315 Southwest	STL 05:06	PHX 06:28	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1932 Southwest	STL 09:36	PHX 11:01	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2574 American Flight history →	STL 08:01	PHX 09:17	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 4112 Southwest	STL 14:06	PHX 15:25	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2660 American	STL 14:25	PHX 15:56	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4113 Southwest	STL 17:51	PHX 19:14	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON