Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 568 at 10:21, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 568 Southwest	STL 10:21	PIT 13:12	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	5h 26m	98%	88%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 09:43 → PIT 12:24AA 4467 · flown by Republic	6h 28m	99%	88%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	5h 05m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122	6h 56m	99%	85%
American Details →	STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308	3h 52m Philadelphia	PHL 13:26 → PIT 14:53AA 9827	7h 39m	99%	83%
American Details →	STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → PIT 14:50AA 2664	6h 43m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet	55m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → PIT 13:07UA 2752	4h 07m	68%	58%
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	4h 29m	66%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON