Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 766 at 10:21, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 766 Southwest	STL 10:21	PNS 12:19	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	5h 52m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 12m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	6h 42m	99%	85%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	3h 30m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 31m	100%	83%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	2h 06m Chicago	ORD 11:06 → PNS 13:36UA 2492	6h 16m	96%	80%
American Details →	STL 06:47 → CLT 09:45AA 1515	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476	4h 45m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON