Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4118 at 10:21, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4118 Southwest	STL 10:21	RDU 13:24	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	4h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	4h 34m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	6h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	5h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	4h 27m	96%	89%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	5h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	5h 31m	98%	86%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196	6h 20m	97%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STL 14:01 → CLT 16:59AA 3096	47m Charlotte	CLT 17:46 → RDU 18:53AA 1904	3h 52m	73%	56%
Delta Details →	STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor	58m New York	LGA 17:11 → RDU 19:19DL 5101 · flown by Endeavor	5h 44m	74%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON