tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1110 Southwest STL 05:56 RSW 09:31 5% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 651 Southwest STL 10:21 RSW 13:58 12% 4% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 06:01 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 29m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 7h 47m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 11m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 06m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 27m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:36 → ORD 12:57UA 4395 · flown by GoJet 3h 29m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 7h 58m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:54 → MSP 10:37DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 12:52 → RSW 17:18DL 2219 7h 24m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 1h 59m Philadelphia PHL 11:33 → RSW 14:44AA 507 7h 30m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → RSW 13:22AA 2740 6h 50m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 15:41 → DFW 17:42AA 1363 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → RSW 22:19AA 1267 5h 38m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON