tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 13:38, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4403 Southwest STL 08:31 SAN 10:27 12% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 03m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 7h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 9h 51m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 30m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761 9h 40m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 06m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 7h 49m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 42m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 9h 55m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON