Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4922 at 08:31, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4922 Southwest	STL 08:31	SAT 10:49	3%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	7h 38m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	5h 28m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	8h 22m	99%	88%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022	7h 49m	99%	87%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	3h 55m Houston	IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030	7h 21m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	7h 47m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	8h 02m	99%	85%
United Details →	STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371	1h 12m Houston	IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371	4h 32m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON