Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 473 STL 06:02 → SEA 08:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 388 STL 15:09 → SEA 17:17 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 473 Alaska Flight history →	STL 06:02	SEA 08:30	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AS 674 Alaska	STL 19:35	SEA 21:42	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 388 Alaska Flight history →	STL 15:09	SEA 17:17	19%	5%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	54m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	6h 08m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON