tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 573 United STL 07:13 SFO 09:50 13% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 4931 Southwest STL 08:31 SFO 10:48 17% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 42m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 55m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 2h 01m Houston IAH 12:51 → SFO 15:12UA 2611 8h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 2h 05m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 8h 25m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 8h 35m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 7h 33m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 07m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON