tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2532 Southwest STL 08:36 SMF 10:49 5% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 28m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 16m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 8h 31m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:39 → SMF 10:36AA 2081 7h 04m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:15 → IAH 08:23UA 1371 1h 34m Houston IAH 09:57 → SMF 11:58UA 1155 7h 43m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 05m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 8h 04m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 7h 58m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → SMF 13:31AA 2078 8h 24m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON