Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4127 at 14:56, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4127 Southwest	STL 14:56	SRQ 18:24	16%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115	7h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	4h 57m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 53m	100%	88%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	6h 52m	96%	80%
American Details →	STL 14:01 → CLT 16:59AA 3096	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604	6h 24m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 06:05 → LGA 09:38DL 4981 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 28m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON