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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4128 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4128 Southwest STL 05:01 TPA 08:30 3% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 4129 Southwest STL 10:41 TPA 14:09 14% 3% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 06:01 → ORD 07:22UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 01m Chicago ORD 10:23 → TPA 14:08UA 1834 7h 07m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 29m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:03 → ATL 12:53DL 1571 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 5h 55m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926 1h 41m Chicago ORD 08:07 → TPA 11:51AA 2920 5h 55m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 2h 53m Philadelphia PHL 12:27 → TPA 15:13AA 2412 7h 59m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:52 → TPA 13:32AA 3112 7h 00m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 5h 20m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON